The Kobeissi Letter — sniff.trade

The Kobeissi Letter

35 episodes · 67 trades · 1 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

Stock market leverage in Asia is beginning to crack: Stock trade defaults reported by securities firms in Taiwan rose t

IDEAS · 3

EWTEWTSHORTTaiwan's stock market is facing a severe margin unwind as trade defaults hit record highs, signaling a broader leverage crack$96.55+3.87%›EWYEWYSHORTSouth Korean equities are vulnerable to a massive deleveraging event as margin debt growth vastly outpaces Dot-Com bubble levels$156.97+18.54%›TSMTSMSHORTA historic margin unwind in Taiwan's stock market directly threatens TSMC, the apex tech heavyweight whose rally fueled the region's leverage$396.38+8.58%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: OpenAI is now "leaning toward" pushing its IPO until 2027, per NYT. Details include: 1. "Choppy" markets in

IDEAS · 2

OPEOPENAISHORTOpenAI pushing its IPO to 2027 signals a peak in retail AI enthusiasm and forces a markdown from its trillion dollar valuation target—IDEA›MSFMSFTSHORTOpenAI delaying its IPO removes a major near term liquidity catalyst for Microsoft and threatens the valuation of its massive private stake$471.61-25.39%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

New footage captures the moment the Iranian delegation supposedly left the negotiation …

IDEAS · 2

BREBRENTLONGIran nuclear talk collapse keeps Iranian crude off markets, tightening global oil supply$90.91+12.54%›GOLGOLDLONGIran-US diplomatic breakdown escalates Middle East tensions, driving safe-haven gold demand higher—IDEA›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: The Iranian negotiating delegation has left the negotiation venue in Switzerl…

IDEAS · 2

WTIWTILONGIran walkout from nuclear talks re-escalates Strait of Hormuz disruption risk, pushing WTI crude higher$87.86+13.39%›GLDGLDLONGIran-US nuclear deal unraveling drives safe-haven demand for gold as Middle East conflict risk reignites$4,076.23-3.46%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

Leveraged AI bets are at record highs in Asia: Assets under management (AUM) in the 2x…

IDEAS · 1

SKHSKHXSHORTRecord $13B AUM crowding in the 2x SK Hynix ETF signals peak leverage; an unwind would cascade directly into the underlying stock—IDEA›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: President Trump threatens to “hit Iran very hard again” if they do not “immed…

IDEAS · 3

WTIWTILONGTrump's explicit threat of escalated US strikes on Iran spikes Middle East supply-disruption risk, sending crude oil higher.$87.86+13.94%›GOLGOLDLONGUS-Iran military escalation triggers safe-haven demand, lifting gold as investors flee risk assets.$41.11-4.17%›RTXRTXLONGConfirmed US kinetic strikes on Iran, with more threatened, drives direct restocking demand for RTX's Raytheon missiles and air defense systems.$213.70+14.55%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: Iran warns that continued Israeli presence in southern Lebanon would void the…

IDEAS · 2

WTIWTILONGUS-Iran peace deal at risk as Israel refuses Lebanon withdrawal, threatening oil supply and sanctions re-escalation — crude prices spike.$87.86+11.18%›RTXRTXLONGIsrael's refusal to exit Lebanon and escalating Iran tensions sustain elevated Middle East conflict, lifting demand for missile defense and aerospace systems.$213.70+15.84%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

US small businesses worried about the economy: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index …

IDEAS · 1

IWMIWMSHORTNFIB optimism at 16-month low signals deteriorating small-business fundamentals, pressuring small-cap equities lower$295.49+0.44%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: Foreign holdings of US Treasuries rose +$3.9 billion in April, to $9.35 trill…

IDEAS · 1

TLTTLTSHORTChina's 3-month Treasury selloff + Canada's record single-month dump signal fragmentation pressure on US long bonds.$81.28+7.14%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

Technology firms are reshaping the global investment landscape: The IT sector now acco…

IDEAS · 2

XYZXYZ100LONGIT sector at ~38% of MSCI USA Index, up +15pts in 4 years — structural weight expansion drives continued index-level tech outperformance.$28,116.79-8.97%›EWYEWYLONGIT sector surged to ~44% of MSCI EM Index, more than doubling since 2022 — EM tech is the fastest-growing weight in global benchmarks, led by Korea and Taiwan.$156.97-26.84%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: President Trump responds to reports that Iran is preparing to impose tolls on…

IDEAS · 2

WTIWTISHORTTrump blocks Hormuz toll threat, collapsing the geopolitical risk premium baked into crude oil prices.$87.86-14.84%›STNSTNGLONGGuaranteed free Hormuz passage boosts tanker economics as Persian Gulf shipping risk evaporates during the ceasefire.$79.10-1.62%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

The global rate cut cycle is over: Among 52 central banks worldwide, the same number h…

IDEAS · 2

EUREURLONGECB's first rate hike since Sept 2023 restarts European tightening, driving EUR higher vs USD.$1.16+2.47%›TLTTLTSHORTSynchronized global tightening restarts — 26 of 52 central banks now hiking — pressures long-duration bonds lower.$81.28+4.32%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

The market is being driven by just 2 sectors: The S&P 500 has added over +$5 trillion …

IDEAS · 2

NVDNVDALONGAI stocks are the entire market in 2026; NVDA as the GPU backbone of the 84-firm AI basket that added $6T.$199.82-3.94%›XLEXLELONGEnergy is the only non-AI S&P sector with positive YTD market cap gains, a rare bright spot as every other sector bleeds $1T.$60.28+9.58%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC officially confirms that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed to al…

IDEAS · 2

WTIWTILONGIRGC re-confirms Hormuz closure to ALL vessels, removing ~20% of global oil supply from market$87.86+10.24%›NATNATGASLONGHormuz closure traps Qatar LNG exports in the Gulf, cutting global nat gas supply as the world's largest LNG chokepoint goes dark$2.84-12.82%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: Iran's top joint military command officially releases a statement closing the…

IDEAS · 3

WTIWTILONGIran officially closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting ~20% of global oil supply and sending crude sharply higher.$87.86+12.13%›GOLGOLDLONGHormuz closure triggers stagflationary oil shock and geopolitical fear bid, driving gold higher as the primary safe-haven asset.$4,076.23-1.29%›RTXRTXLONGIran's Hormuz closure deepens U.S.-Iran military conflict, accelerating defense procurement and lifting missile/air defense contractors.$213.70+15.49%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: Iran's top joint military command announces that the Strait of Hormuz is now …

IDEAS · 3

WTIWTILONGIran shuts the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off ~20% of global oil supply and sending crude prices higher.$87.86+12.92%›GOLGOLDLONGEscalating Middle East conflict from Hormuz closure drives safe-haven demand, pushing gold higher.$4,076.23-1.51%›NATNATGASLONGHormuz closure blocks Persian Gulf LNG exports, removing a major share of global gas supply and driving prices higher.$2.84-11.61%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

Emerging market central banks are driving historic gold purchases: Over the last 3 yea…

IDEAS · 1

GOLGOLDLONGEM central banks buying 15+ tonnes/month of gold creates a structural demand floor that keeps prices elevated$4,076.23-0.21%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

China’s economic slowdown is deepening: China’s retail sales fell -0.6% YoY in May, th…

IDEAS · 2

BABBABASHORTChina retail sales turned negative for first time since post-COVID, crushing consumer demand and Alibaba's core revenue base$124.16-16.49%›BEKBEKESHORTChina property investment plunging -16.2% YoY and accelerating, directly gutting transaction volumes for KE Holdings, China's dominant real estate brokerage platform$17.21-14.45%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

Retail investors have never traded more options. Retail investors have traded an avera…

IDEAS · 2

NVDNVDALONGRecord retail options flow into semis signals euphoric demand that pulls the sector's biggest name higher.$199.82-5.82%›HOOHOODLONGAll-time high retail options volume lifts Robinhood's transaction revenue as the platform captures the surge in retail trading activity.$84.98-22.40%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

The private credit crisis is getting worse: Investor withdrawal requests from large pr…

IDEAS · 3

BXBXSHORTBlackstone's private credit fund faces $4.5B in redemption requests; AUM shrinkage will compress fee revenue and pressure BX lower.$126.83-4.38%›BLKBLKSHORTBlackRock's HPS private credit unit faces surging redemptions, eroding the growth story BLK paid a premium to acquire and weighing on the stock.$1,107.85-7.76%›ARCARCCSHORTBDC new sales collapsed -74% YoY as retail confidence evaporates; ARCC, the largest BDC, faces a dual hit from inflow drought and redemption pressure.$18.38-0.02%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

Foreign investors are increasingly driving the South Korean market: Investors from ove…

IDEAS · 2

SKHSKHXLONGRecord foreign inflows into KOSPI are concentrated in SK Hynix, lifting the named semiconductor name directly.—IDEA›EWYEWYLONGRecord foreign inflows are reshaping the KOSPI broadly, driving the South Korea equity ETF to new highs.$156.97-25.34%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: Iran has declared that ships cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz without its pe…

IDEAS · 2

WTIWTILONGIran's Hormuz control assertion threatens ~20% of global oil transit, driving WTI crude sharply higher on supply shock risk.$87.86+15.12%›FROFROLONGIran's Hormuz insurance mandates and forced routing inflate tanker operating costs while simultaneously spiking freight rates, boosting tanker operators like Frontline.$39.98-3.93%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: Vice President JD Vance has postponed his planned trip to Switzerland for US-…

IDEAS · 2

WTIWTILONGUS-Iran nuclear talks collapse risk drives WTI crude oil higher on Middle East supply disruption fears$87.86+14.02%›GOLGOLDLONGCollapse of US-Iran diplomacy and Lebanon escalation drive gold higher as geopolitical safe-haven demand rises$4,076.23-0.46%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

US commercial crude oil inventories are reaching critical levels: Crude inventories at…

IDEAS · 2

WTIWTILONGCushing crude at 12-year lows and approaching operational minimum creates a structural supply squeeze pushing WTI prices higher.$87.86+18.98%›XOMXOMLONGCritically depleted US oil inventories and exhausted SPR mean tighter supply and higher prices, boosting upstream producer revenues and margins.$155.34+14.41%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

The semiconductor trade extremely popular: 80% of global fund managers said in early J…

IDEAS · 1

NVDNVDASHORTSemiconductors hit near-record 80% crowding in BofA FMS — extreme positioning historically precedes mean-reversion selloffs$199.82+3.81%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: US CENTCOM announces that the US Naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has o…

IDEAS · 1

WTIWTISHORTUS Naval blockade on Strait of Hormuz lifted, restoring ~20M bbl/day of supply flow and collapsing oil's war-risk premium.$87.86-16.68%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: US CENCOM announces that the US Naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has of…

IDEAS · 1

WTIWTISHORTHormuz blockade officially lifted, unwinding the entire war-premium that drove WTI up 63% YTD.$87.86-16.33%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: President Trump says "there is no $300 billion payment to Iran by the US." "…

IDEAS · 2

WTIWTISHORTTrump explicitly calls for lower oil prices and denies Iran sanctions relief, removing a supply-disruption premium from crude.$87.86-15.65%›SP5SP500LONGTrump's "check out the stock market" signal frames Iran de-escalation as equity-positive, reinforcing the current rally.$7,396.70+0.26%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: The Trump Administration will be providing Iran with access to $6 billion of …

IDEAS · 2

BREBRENTSHORTIran oil export waiver + Strait of Hormuz reopening floods global supply, pressing Brent crude lower$90.91-19.40%›FROFROSHORTStrait of Hormuz reopening kills the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil tanker stocks like Frontline$39.98+0.42%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

Retail's risk appetite is skyrocketing: Retail investors bought +$150 billion of the 1…

IDEAS · 2

SPYSPYLONGRetail equity ETF inflows hit 2nd-highest ever, sustaining a strong bid under large-cap US stocks$7,396.70+0.73%›LQDLQDLONGNear-record retail inflows into corp bond ETFs signal strong demand for credit, pushing investment-grade bond prices higher$106.79-0.44%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: US semiconductor ETFs, $SMH, and $SOXX, attracted +$4.7 billion in inflows la…

IDEAS · 1

SMHSMHLONGRecord $4.7B weekly inflows into semiconductor ETFs signal relentless institutional demand, pushing the sector higher.$530.16-18.72%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: US oil prices drop below $74/barrel for the first time since March 5th after …

IDEAS · 2

WTIWTISHORTUS-Iran MOU removes geopolitical risk premium, sending WTI crude below $74 and continuing its multi-week freefall$87.86-20.37%›XLEXLESHORTWTI crude collapsing below $74 squeezes revenue for US oil producers, pulling the energy sector ETF lower$60.28-12.42%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: Iran officially posts the fully executed “Memorandum of Understanding” which …

IDEAS · 4

WTIWTISHORTUS-Iran MOU unlocks Iranian crude exports and ends naval blockade, flooding global oil supply and crashing WTI$87.86-19.81%›GOLGOLDSHORTUS-Iran ceasefire collapses Middle East war risk premium in gold, removing safe-haven demand that built during active conflict$41.11+7.17%›ZIMZIMLONGStrait of Hormuz reopens for commercial vessels under US-Iran MOU, restoring shipping routes that were disrupted by conflict$25.60+9.08%›ITAITASHORTUS-Iran ceasefire ends active Middle East conflict, removing the war-escalation catalyst that inflated defense contractor revenue expectations$243.52-2.45%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

BREAKING: Intel, $INTC, surges +9% after President Trump says the company has partnered…

IDEAS · 1

INTINTCLONGApple-Intel chip manufacturing deal validates Intel Foundry and lands its most prestigious customer win yet, driving INTC sharply higher.$88.43-34.11%›

@KobeissiLetter

1mo

World central banks are incredibly bullish on gold: 45% of central banks said they pla…

IDEAS · 1

GOLGOLDLONGRecord central bank buying intent — 45% planning purchases over the next 12 months per WGC — creates a structural, price-insensitive bid floor under gold.$4,076.23-4.98%›