“2028 election is going to be a knife fight for Republican and Democrat primaries amongst themselves and against each other as to who can be more anti-AI…”
Anti-AI backlash from the 99% is wildly underpriced and will dominate the 2028 election
“I feel like it's getting a lot of juice. Everyone's talking about it. Madison Square Garden's at all-time highs.”
IRL / analog revival is real and gaining social momentum, the live-experience names keep ripping
“I'm still in StubHub … I'm up 12%. You search StubHub and it's like the only tweets are about how much of a scam it is.”
StubHub long working on the IRL thesis despite brutal brand sentiment online
“I believe that cruises are fundamentally a pre-COVID thing. They'll never— cruise lines will never hit an all-time high in attendance again.”
Cruise lines never recover pre-COVID attendance, demand permanently stigmatized as gross and germy
“But you know what is always a short? Never ask yourself the question, should I short sell Snapchat?”
Snapchat is a perennial short, dumping on every competitor announcement with no path to relevance
“Unbelievable, top-tier, world-class, irrefutable ideas, really bad execution, just subpar execution on these ideas.”
Meta has world-class ideas but botches execution every time, a serial missed-opportunity story
“they did this like coordinated push from all White House accounts to shill Quantum … I care about thesis changed. Or everyone chilling it.”
Coordinated White House quantum push and a $224 grant make IBM a momentum buy on thesis change.
“all of them are up like 40, 50% since they partnered with Nvidia, since this, uh, these grants went out … Quantum has traded very well.”
Federal quantum grants and an Nvidia partnership are ripping the whole quantum basket higher.
“One positive tailwind you have is that the government is really afraid of quantum and it cracking cryptography.”
Government fear of quantum cracking cryptography is a bullish tailwind for Bitcoin.
“I don't have a catalyst. If you gave me a catalyst to enter, I would be the first person to slam it … as it currently stands, it's in a really tough spot.”
SpaceX hitting all-time lows below IPO first tick sets an ugly precedent and offers no catalyst to buy.
“Biggest losers: SanDisk crushed, down 14%. Now I'm assuming the SanDisk crush is the same as the Micron, like, just following the memory crush…”
SanDisk and the memory complex are following the SK Hynix demand-walk-back lower.
“when the big caps get really weak and you can't pump them anymore … mags move too slow, we're uninterested”
Big-cap mags moving too slow to pump signals late-cycle rotation, a warning sign for indices.
“The next game is what has enduring franchise value.”
The bottleneck trade is nearing its end as franchise value, not scarcity, becomes the new game.
“It's a market cap of Cerebris, $40 billion. They just announced a $20 billion partnership. That's insane.”
Cerebras lands a $20B OpenAI deal at a $40B market cap, a huge relative bid.