“the on track is doing a lot of work … that's clearly an ARR number that's extrapolated out”
GLP-1 telehealth revenue rests on extrapolated ARR; FDA/Novo crackdown on compounded semaglutide knocks the public proxy down.
“The absence of a broader supply of modern US, cheap US systems in the Iran War has served as a wake-up call.”
Iran war exposed a US autonomy gap; procurement pivots to AI-orchestrated systems, and the kill-chain software layer compounds.
“Both companies are releasing new versions of their AI models at fast— at a faster cadence than ever before, while pouring more resources into the training…”
Frontier-lab training spend accelerates through the decade; the compute supplier capturing those dollars gets a sustained bid.
“The day before this article ran, the day before, Lilly's oral got approved. It was not tirzepatide. In fact, it wasn't even a peptide.”
Lilly's oral GLP-1 (non-peptide) just got approved, validating its pipeline as compounders peddle baseless oral tirzepatide.
“a great example is Lucid, right? I think they control Lucid and it is not an accident. Lucid is building a factory in Saudi Arabia, not because that's like…”
Saudi PIF controls Lucid and forces it to build a Saudi factory for strategic, not commercial, reasons.
“we think the era of the web app is kind of over. … most people are just going to be talking to AI agents and it's going to be performing those actions on your…”
Agents replacing form-based SaaS guts the per-seat model, compressing legacy workflow-SaaS multiples.
“Between World War II until now, Tom and Dwight, the amount of ships U.S. has built, China built more than that in the last 12 months, right?”
U.S. naval recapitalization accelerates to close the China shipbuilding gap, and HII is the prime builder.
“It's becoming table stakes, right?”
Daily/instant pay turning into table stakes pulls EWA through payroll incumbents, lifting Paychex attach and stickiness.