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“Reuters says the IPO drew orders for more than 20x the shares available … Polymarket is projecting Cerebras to close above $50 billion market cap by the end of day one.”
@TBPN
Cerebras IPO upsized and 20x oversubscribed on inference demand; expect a strong day-one pop.
CBRSLONG@ $282.48
$200.71-28.95%
since call May 11
“the peace deal was … on major life support”
@TBPN
Hormuz stays shut and the peace deal collapses, keeping ~20% of seaborne oil off the market and Brent bid.
BRENTLONG@ $104.09
$91.17-12.42%
since call May 11
41:46LONG
“especially outside of the United States.”
@TBPN
Quasi-infinite offshore dollar demand routes through USDC, scaling Circle's float and reserve income.
CRCLLONG@ $132.66
$63.34-52.25%
since call May 11
“We recast all of that about 6 months ago and we've made enormous progress in just 6 months. … We are turning around Tinder and it feels great.”
@TBPN
Match is turning around Tinder under founder-led leadership; metrics already improving after 6 months.
MTCHLONG@ $36.09
$40.13+11.18%
since call May 11
peak +15.1%
“once SpaceX gets public, I think that will be pretty amazing for the ecosystem … a SpaceX or Anduril IPO will be massive.”
@TBPN
A SpaceX IPO validates space as a public category, and listed space primes re-rate to the new benchmark.
RKLBLONG@ $121.46
$63.44-47.77%
since call May 11
“we got into renewables, C&I, electrical distribution … transformers, switchgear systems, and then ended up getting a massive RFQ. What do you do with an AI data center?”
@TBPN
AI data centers are bottlenecked by transformers and switchgear, so electrical-distribution makers capture outsized CapEx share.
ETNLONG@ $411.24
$419.17+1.93%
since call May 11
131:00SHORT
“CoreWeave's all-in CapEx to revenue is 3.6x. Sachs, back of the envelope, CapEx revenue is 1.8 at midpoint. So either CoreWeave really sucks at this or these numbers are 50% off before we even get to ”
@TBPN
CoreWeave's CapEx-to-revenue is 3.6x vs an idealized 1.8x, so unit economics are far worse than the model.
CRWVSHORT@ $116.26
$71.89+38.16%
since call May 11
peak +46.8%
TIMESTAMPS
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83:26
131:00