“When that corridor tightens, fertilizer prices react, and corn farmers feel it first... Either scenario potentially tightens corn supply which could be price supportive.”
Geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz threatens 33% of global fertilizer trade, forcing farmers to slash nitrogen use and squeezing corn supplies.
“I'm a tech guy. Like I I I'm bullish AI. I think there's gonna be huge losers in AI, but in aggregate, I think you can justify the spend.”
Tech giants are pouring $725 billion into AI infrastructure, and this massive aggregate spending cements the mega-cap winners dominating the Nasdaq.
“the balance sheets are so massive. This is where I've spent a lot of my recent time on it because I think that there's an amazing trading opportunity shorting these balance sheets honestly.”
Apollo masks massive debt inside its insurance arm Athene, and a panic will trigger a bank run because one third of policies carry zero withdrawal penalty.
“I think Aries has the biggest gap of brand name CocaCola aura to reality and I've done a lot of work on ARCC as a BDC... Compare that to FSK. Everyone thinks FSK is junk... One is less than 5% discoun”
Ares Capital hides a riskier debt profile behind a pristine brand, commanding a 0.95x book value premium despite holding worse assets than discounted peers.
“Compare that to FSK. Everyone thinks FSK is junk... One has a 50% discount more or less. One is less than 5% discount consistently. Both have 60% software. ARCC has more subordinated debt.”
The market blindly punishes FSK with a massive 50% discount, handing buyers a bargain on a loan portfolio that holds less risky debt than premium rivals.
“Blackstone is is next in terms of I feel like the entire business is marketing entire business... When I look at John Gray, I see a narrator... Blackstone seems to love the hottest Momo trade of the y”
Blackstone masks weak underwriting with slick marketing, but as its $45B credit fund gates investor withdrawals, the illusion shatters and shares will plunge.
“Blue is the one that I would bump up the most. They're underwriting... overwhelmingly analyzing their portfolios you know they will do the related party to Gavvare they are not what the market thinks ”
Blue Owl hides a pristine loan book with just 1.0% non-accruals behind terrible public relations, making it the most undervalued alternative asset manager.