“AI is a massively important theme, the most important investment theme, and compute is— we don't have enough compute. It's insatiable”
Memory and broadening semiconductor hardware stack ride insatiable compute demand
“the move to Blackwell Vera Rubin as an investment theme … I think you're gonna see more of this going forward”
Nvidia Blackwell/Vera Rubin upgrade cycle is a durable AI hardware investment theme
“Unfortunately for most financial advisors, they are positioned in things like private credit and things like the Mag 7 and the hyperscalers…”
Rotate away from Mag 7 and hyperscalers as they underperform in the new AI regime
“Utilities, um, despite rates moving higher, utilities have acted great. This is data centers. This is usage of AI. This is electricity demand is going higher.”
Utilities act great despite higher rates as AI data centers drive electricity demand higher
“transports look great. As long as transports are good, nominal GDP is good. End of story. … flatbed rates are incredibly strong”
Transports signal strong nominal GDP, flatbed rates at historic highs from data center and energy buildout
“flatbed rates are incredibly strong … Flatbreads, which are almost always industrial or raw materials…”
Flatbed trucking names like Landstar ride the historic surge in industrial freight rates
“I think we're going to have some sectors that have trouble, and this is one of them … you're way below a 200-day which is pointed downward.”
Financials stay weak below a downward-pointing 200-day, no reason to buy the dip
“there's been 32 matches, 3 errors”
Stagflation signal (prices paid >75, employment <50) historically precedes 20-48% S&P drawdowns
“I said this would be a year of a physical upgrade and that we would have shortages.”
Commodities are in a bull market driven by physical shortages, you can't print molecules
“the oil energy situation, regardless of your view, it has a new floor, guys. That is the reality of this, is there's a new floor.”
Oil has a permanent new floor after Strait of Hormuz damage, physical spot prices doubling
“This is a run that's happening. These numbers are staggering. It will lead to them now needing to sell bonds … you start to get something that reminds me a…”
Credit cycle unwinding for first time since 2007, Blue Owl facing 22-40% redemptions
“we just learned with the software side that that is happening more because AI is a headwind.”
Software stays broken as AI disruption makes terminal value impossible to judge, no bounce coming
“this is the CCC versus the lowest part of high yield... We continue to widen out. It's happening.”
CCC spreads widening through an equity rally flags credit-cycle cracks; junk bonds repriced lower.
“one of the reasons that I've been very bullish on it was the relationship with Insilico, which is also connected to Google DeepMind.”
Eli Lilly's own AI token factory plus DeepMind, NVIDIA, Insilico ties make it a drug-discovery winner
“Memory to non-memory semiconductor prices rising across the board. We are at the agentic phase.”
Semis broaden past memory into packaging, analog, edge, autos and phones as agentic phase arrives
“Bitcoin will be the best performing asset once we get through the point where the government has to get involved.”
Bitcoin becomes best performer once the Fed is forced to go dovish on a credit-cycle crisis