“We're going to get a correction at some point. I think it's going to be more than a 1-week correction when we finally do get it.”
S&P stretched after a huge run; mean reversion correction likely as month-end profit-taking hits.
“They broke below the 20-day moving average. It's unchanged pretty much over the course of the last 3 weeks … this is telling me the market's tired.”
Hyperscaler basket broke below 20-day MA, the spenders stalling, telling you the market is tired.
“the industrials around the globe are showing weakness … they would be the first group to show the weakness over the semiconductors”
Global industrials rolling over with MACD sell signal, the first crack before semis break.
“the machinery side in Japan … basically went up and has gone back down”
Japan machinery and construction just broke their 200-day average for the first time since ChatGPT; the AI-era uptrend is rolling over.
“we're really drawing down … If oil doesn't sit here and we're draining inventories, we should have a spike then.”
Oil set to spike: largest US crude draw since 1982, Hormuz unresolved, inventories draining globally.
“I like Marvell to do more than what I think memory will do. I think Marvell is more important to the future and more of a moat.”
Marvell is more important to the future with a real moat; prefer it over memory and it made new highs
“I think crypto's in the same place … the handoff is going to the redesigning of the global financial system.”
Crypto is the next AI handoff; in a year people will ask how they didn't buy Circle, Ethereum, Bitcoin
“the handoff is going to the redesigning of the global financial system”
Stablecoin and tokenization infrastructure is the next leg; Circle a named beneficiary of the on-chain handoff
“these two names to me are, think of them as the defensive side of AI … I would be increasing size into some of those names like Vistra”
Vistra and IPPs are the defensive AI play; rotate here ahead of a momentum unwind in high-beta names
“when Intel went under $110 this week, I started buying some because I believe CPUs and optical are still good trades over memory … I'm doing this based on the…”
Intel under $110 is a buy; CPUs and optical beat memory on demand surprise versus supply