“Buying the losers, meaning the SaaS names, that is not adaptation. You are basically trying to play the game of the prior decade…”
Software multiples keep compressing as AI makes 3-year revenue forecasts impossible; SaaS is a value trap.
“When SaaS finds a bottom, eventually it will, in my opinion, be Bitcoin that leads the way higher.”
Bitcoin leads higher once SaaS bottoms; it is the only growth asset AI cannot disrupt.
“I think the Nasdaq and technology has to underperform … I do not believe that people are spending enough time on the deflationary situation that is going on…”
Nasdaq tech must underperform; AI deflation means hyperscaler revenues won't justify CapEx.
“The scarcity repricing, which is gold, which is copper, which is all of these things that are scarce, that is where we're going to end up.”
Long scarcity assets gold and copper as AI deflation reprices away from bloated public equities.
“in every case, credit spreads went higher … You want convexity in your portfolio”
Buy convexity: VIX calls and CDX high yield protection as dispersion drives credit spreads wider.
“Industrials, materials, utilities, energy. See this? These are all the sectors I would say that are the data center buildout and the things necessary for the…”
Long industrials/materials/utilities as the asset-heavy data center buildout winners take leadership.
“Financials down. Financials should be up here if this is a PMI-related boom. What is going on in financials should be worrisome to people…”
Short financials as a credit canary; they should lead in a PMI boom but are falling.
“I will reiterate this package thing that I created, which is an equal weight of the names that benefit from the move to edge devices … this looks like it's…”
Long edge-device analog/semis basket benefiting from the move to AI on edge devices breaking out.
“High gross leverage in semis versus software will be reduced soon. That's all I need to know to be long semis and short software still.”
Long semis short software: the high gross leverage gap in semis vs software unwinds soon.
“I am incredibly negative on all long-duration assets. If it's illiquid, I'm even more negative. … I think they should be trading at a discount.”
Private equity and private credit firms should trade at a discount as illiquid long-duration assets reprice.
“We are in a deflationary spiral. … if you can't get the orders or if they're delayed, that's a problem”
AI inference deflation strands GPU-cloud unit economics; debt-funded capex flips from asset to liability.
“Netflix threatens ByteDance … ByteDance, these are AI-generated movies, videos”
Netflix is being disrupted by AI-generated video from ByteDance and Hollywood AI tools.
“I still believe NVIDIA is the key to the market. As long as their stock holds up— and you'll get earnings from them next week— as long as their…”
NVIDIA is the key to the market; as long as its stock holds the S&P survives until credit cracks.
“Everyone wants to short memory. They look at the charts and say it's got to be in there … we're about to hit a flash wall.”
Long memory/NAND names: a flash wall of demand hits as supply runs short across cloud and edge.