“the ceasefire is fake … the risk reward is back to skewing extremely negative for stocks broadly”
S&P sits 3% off all-time highs with a fake ceasefire and bad macro, so risk reward is short.
“AI is actually eating software's lunch”
AI is eating software's lunch, premium compresses and EPS rolls over, so short software.
“Bitcoin's actually sniffing out, maybe some global liquidity relief”
Bitcoin is diverging from software, sniffing out global liquidity relief and Trump stimulus into midterms.
“I think the market is underpricing the demand for compute here. … I want to own the people that are selling it.”
Compute demand is wildly underpriced, so own the semis and hardware sellers to the hyperscalers.
“there's more than $330 billion of high-yield leveraged loan and business developed company-linked software and tech debt coming for repayments through 2028 ……”
A $330B tech/software debt wall through 2028 cracks BDC loan books; markdowns and redemptions sink BDC equity.
“the hilarious part about all of this is that it's made China a safe haven for global bond markets and capital … there's less global trade of oil in dollars…”
De-dollarized oil flows route capital into RMB bonds; Chinese govt debt bid and yuan firm together.
“going out the curve in oil futures is extremely interesting as this is being priced to be over ASAP … if you're buying $70 back month, and I think, you know…”
Back-month oil futures converge toward 90 as the spike gets priced as over too soon.
“you see gold coming absolutely out of this severe equity correlation … and every time they like swap the bond yields down, gold, you know, rears its head.”
Gold is breaking its equity correlation and rising every time the bond market is propped, a debasement hedge.
“if gold doesn't implode, these miners are printing dough. … this might be the M&A cycle happening in gold, in the gold miners now.”
Gold miners are printing money as spot trades far above breakeven; M&A cycle starting
“a basket is so required because”
A basket of commodities is required hedge given Strait risk and currency debasement
“to me it looks like a best case is an Iran-controlled toll paid in foreign currency.”
Strait of Hormuz toll paid in non-dollars structurally erodes dollar hegemony over time
“a lot of these non-US trades have gotten rinsed. And LATAM, China, like anywhere but US kind of seems to be like…”
Non-US markets, LATAM and China, set to lead as positioning got rinsed and dollar weakens
“Germany turned off their nuclear power. Like, that's probably coming back on, right?”
An energy-security shock revives nuclear, so reactor restarts tighten uranium fuel demand and miners re-rate up.