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0:19LONG
“I am basically in the camp that a 1970s second inflation wave is effectively baked in the cake.”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
1970s-style second inflation wave is baked in, favoring hard assets over long-duration
GOLDLONG@ $4,569.49
$4,073.71-10.85%
since call Apr 30
16:53LONG
“which is why hardware stocks are working now because Hardware is real, you know, soft software and crazy PEs work in a world where there's no inflation.”
@Forward Guidance · Tyler Neville
Hardware and physical-asset stocks lead as inflation kills high-PE software multiples
SMHLONG@ $491.91
$530.69+7.88%
since call Apr 30
peak +20.9%
18:15LONG
“it's not that liquidity's topped and we're going into recession. It's almost the opposite. And you have to think about what assets you want to own, right?”
@Forward Guidance · Felix Jauvin
Inflationary growth regime: own commodities and real assets as cycle accelerates globally
DBCLONG@ $30.78
$29.08-5.53%
since call Apr 30
22:18LONG
“it's being completely geared towards international producers and Brent over domestic US and WTI … he could put an export restriction that would send Brent…”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
Oil takes off as supply shock persists; favor international Brent producers over US WTI
BRENTLONG@ $112.92
$91.02-19.39%
since call Apr 30
40:24SHORT
“160 has to break to the upside. They can't— they're throwing good money after bad trying to defend this peg, or not peg, but this level…”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
USDJPY breaks above 160 to the upside, dollar strengthens, global yields blow out
JPYSHORT@ $157.88
$153.89+2.53%
since call Apr 30
peak +2.5%
44:06SHORT
“it feels super, super asymmetric to be short bonds, short the yen, and then effectively, either short Japanese equities or short the NASDAQ … something's got…”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
Short the NASDAQ: stretched positioning plus Japan carry unwind sets up a washout
XYZ100SHORT@ $27,024.66
$28,098.56-3.97%
since call Apr 30
55:05SHORT
“this yield curve, it has to steepen. It has to steepen because they're going to be like an elephant on the front end.”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
US 30-year yield breaks 5% as fiscal dominance forces the long end higher no matter what they try
TLTSHORT@ $84.53
$81.30+3.82%
since call Apr 30
peak +4.4%
TIMESTAMPS
0:19
16:53
18:15
22:18
40:24
44:06
55:05