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“a lot of this has come on the back of the dollar getting pushed lower … I would say it bounces. I don't think we just like go to zero on the dollar.”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
Dollar pushed lower is driving everything; it bounces from extreme rather than going to zero
“this stock is like, it's been doing really well fundamentally … all of a sudden they just say, hey, things are going well. And the stock just jacks up.”
@Forward Guidance · Tyler Neville
AI infrastructure has real underlying demand; the compute buildout is a durable tailwind
CRDOLONG@ $157.90
$208.98+32.35%
since call Apr 16
peak +54.6%
“Allbirds, which basically went bankrupt, just decided to execute a $50 million convertible financing facility to pivot from direct-to-consumer friggin' shoes…”
@Forward Guidance · Felix Jauvin
An AI rebrand of a bankrupt shoemaker rips on hype then bleeds out as holders distribute into the spike.
BIRDSHORT@ $10.87
$2.24+79.35%
since call Apr 16
peak +79.7%
23:21SHORT
“the long end is probably more problematic here than the front end … campaign for midterms start picking up in May and June…”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
Long end is the pressure point: deficits, stimulus into midterms keep bond yields elevated
TLTSHORT@ $84.81
$81.67+3.70%
since call Apr 16
peak +5.0%
“housing prices will eventually, I think, adjust … housing becomes just a dead asset, I think, for the next 10, 15 years.”
@Forward Guidance · Tyler Neville
Housing faces demographic oversupply; prices crumble and it becomes a dead asset for 10-15 years
ITBSHORT@ $95.17
$96.06-0.93%
since call Apr 16
34:06LONG
“I think there's runway and I don't think it's considered yet. … the deficit has gone from 7% to almost 5% over the last year and a bit”
@Forward Guidance · Felix Jauvin
Policy is pump-the-stock-market into midterms; fiscal room left, equities grind higher
SP500LONG@ $7,009.56
$7,349.88+4.86%
since call Apr 16
peak +7.9%
“We're living in a negative real yield world now... if inflation's really at at 5% and yields are at 3%…”
@Forward Guidance · Tyler Neville
Negative real yields world: lever up and buy assets growing faster than inflation
GOLDLONG@ $4,792.40
EXIT$4,179.20-12.80%
since call Apr 16
flipped Jun 12 · held 57d · record frozen at -12.80%
Trade on Hyperliquid →TIMESTAMPS
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