“Unity is inflecting though, and has a plausible, aggressive path forward … If it gets back down to 1x P/IV15, I will be waiting.”
Unity is inflecting, Vector plus engine plus AI build a real moat, but valuation still too rich to buy
“Intuit is a Castle because it is on the attack. It is not operating from a weak position, nor is it in need of throwing a Hail Mary.”
Intuit is a Castle on the attack but priced too high at 2.81x IV15; great business, not yet a buy
“I rolled my SOXX and QQQ puts at a debit, increasing my capital at risk in both cases. … I do believe we are witnessing a blowoff top.”
A blowoff top in semis means SOXX falls; Burry holds put exposure and added to it
“These are pre-subscription era stock multiples … Adobe is a strong Chapel, with real threats around the edges of vast seeded land.”
Adobe trades at pre-subscription multiples on overblown AI fears, a fat pitch with a real moat
“Autodesk is special, even unique among the SW50. … Out of my buy zone quite a bit just on that IV15 ratio.”
Autodesk is a unique 15%-grower with a liability lock-in moat, but at 3.58x IV15 it is too expensive
“Bentley Systems, to be covered later in the series, owns the road, bridge, water, utility, and transit verticals where data-set requirements are more…”
Bentley's iTwin is the incumbent in infrastructure digital twins, locking in durable pricing power and twin spend.
“At $47.71, down about 85% from $310 in mid-2021, DocuSign, the e-signature company we all know, is still not undervalued, or even fairly valued…”
DocuSign is still overvalued at 4x IV15 with worst-in-class SBC and a stalling core business
“this is the one part of Adobe's business that was going to be susceptible to frontier models as the input is fairly structured … Now Figma is at risk…”
Frontier AI replaces design's starting point, so Figma's structured collaborative loop erodes and its premium multiple unwinds.
“I do believe we are witnessing a blowoff top. … It is also possible that historic overvaluation exhibits some gravity.”
A historic overvaluation blowoff top means tech indices fall; Burry is short via SOXX and QQQ puts
“Investors have fallen in love with a well-dressed solitary point of failure. … that which will break OLOL becomes available.”
CrowdStrike is a well-dressed single point of failure at 23x IV15 as Mythos arrives to break OLOL