“the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this year or next year or even into 28, but let me just do 26 and 27, absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some…”
Allison stakes a low-probability NO on a near-term Taiwan invasion, explicitly pegging himself to where prediction markets sit, so the trade is to sell the fear premium rather than buy the invasion. His reasons are structural: Beijing believes peaceful reunification is trending its way and Trump is the most accommodating US president it will see.
“There's going to be an election in January 28, and they think it's likely that the former party, the KMT will be elected. Somebody they'll be much more…”
Allison's point is that Beijing expects a KMT win in Jan 2028 to soften cross-strait relations, which removes the trigger for forcing the issue by force. A more China-sympathetic Taipei makes a near-term invasion less necessary, so the executable expression is NO on China invading Taiwan.
“the biggest threat that he's ever seen is the fact that 96% of the advanced semiconductors come from one small island that could be cut off”
96% of advanced chips come from one island and the world is structurally dependent on TSMC
“if you look at uh I'm sure you have or you'll have probably had him on Jensen Huang, uh but when he went to China, he said, gee, I think I came to the future”
China's faster adoption of new tech and Jensen's future framing point to deep AI compute demand