“Wow. Their take rates must have been so much lower. Anybody hold Hood? I wonder if crypto just got shot like that. And I was applying similar takes of what we…”
Robinhood's take rates collapsed on lower rebates as it cut pricing to compete; stock in free fall.
“I think this might be similar to Micron where the beat was so big that people wanted to hear a little bit more. Bloom. This is a mid, the stock sort of…”
AI data center infra names like Bloom and Seagate get rewarded with high multiples for being in the right category.
“Seagate just said, we believe Seagate is entering a new era of structural growth as AI applications amplify data creation and support sustained storage demand.”
Seagate enters structural AI-driven storage growth at a healthy multiple; beat 17% on EPS.
“This was, if we're following hallucination yield, by the way, this TLN name is what GPT likes the most for a long energy that is in bloom. It's $16 billion…”
Energy/nuclear names that power AI data centers get bid as part of the trillion-dollar infra theme.
“all of the Elon paydays to come from here are dependent on ridiculous goalposts for SpaceX... every second he spends on Tesla is one second he cannot spend on…”
Tesla's 330x multiple unwinds as Elon's SpaceX pay package pulls all his attention off Tesla.
“And the UAE has left, which I interpreted as they will now just produce as much as possible. And short term, it's probably bearish for oil, right? Because…”
UAE leaving OPEC means uncapped production: short-term bearish oil, but uncertainty shakes the market.
“Oracle, which I was trying to make a case why this would be an interesting trade is they have, you know, they've invested like a trillion dollars to build out…”
Nvidia is the cleanest AI infra long; Oracle/OpenAI capex round-trips into Nvidia chips anyway.
“I think as long as the US models are better, have some lead, people will pay exponentially more money for bleeding edge... But if it gets even, that's the…”
The real AI bubble risk isn't OpenAI vs Anthropic but Chinese models closing the gap, killing US lab pricing.
“increasingly Semis isn't driven by nodes at all. Intel, it's actually being driven by packaging. And this is a case where I've really been hammering that TSMC…”
Intel's packaging edge and node turnaround make it wildly underpriced; should be a trillion-plus market cap.
“photonics needs coolers. People don't know this. Photonics needs special coolers because if the temperature goes off even by a little bit, the thing doesn't…”
Thermoelectric coolers like Fabrinet are critical to photonics working; temperature-sensitive bottleneck nobody flags.
“really SanDisk is making an innovation called high bandwidth flash, HBF. It's like high bandwidth memory, but it's for flash. They are probably getting…”
SanDisk's high bandwidth flash innovation makes it a high-conviction long; samples expected by year-end.
“Flex just really makes water, water cooling equipment, right? We've kind of seen that, uh, ADS Telegraph, that their, the voltages of their systems are going…”
Flex is mispriced as commodity cooling when it's really a consulting play for high-voltage chip cooling.
“it's such a, let's market dog shit so more people can buy our dog shit instead of let's make better stuff so more people can buy better stuff. It's never made…”
Pump.fun's pivot to 50% buybacks plus growth spend doesn't fix the broken meme coin model; trenches stay dead.