Taiki Maeda — sniff.trade

Taiki Maeda

The Humble Farmer (@thehumblefarmer) — Taiki Maeda, crypto investor and CEO of HFA Research, sharing his own market theses and live positions, mostly…

15 episodes · 66 trades · 2 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@Taiki Maeda

2w

Crypto is Bottoming. We’re About to Go Much Higher.

IDEAS · 4

HYPHYPELONGHyperliquid is capturing real-world asset perpetuals market share as its HIPP3 volume grows and the protocol buys back 3.4% of its circulating supply year-to-date.$52.18-14.04%›LITLITLONGLighter is positioned to capture traditional retail perpetuals volume through its Robinhood partnership while buying back 6.3% of its supply.$2.09-8.63%›ZECZECLONGZcash is rolling out the quantum-proof Ironwood shielded pool on July 28th, fixing recent vulnerability fears and positioning the token to capture market share from Bitcoin.$454.75-13.22%›SUISUISHORTSui lacks fundamental token value and serves as a clean short leg to hedge against long spot crypto portfolios.$0.68+7.87%›

@Taiki Maeda

1mo

Bears were Right. I was Wrong. I Got Rekt.

IDEAS · 1

ETHETHSHORTEthereum is structurally overvalued as a cash-flow asset now that the fat protocol thesis is dead.$1,862-14.90%›

@Taiki Maeda

2mo

Bears are Wrong. Crypto is Going So Much Higher.

POSITIONS · 3

TMTaiki Maeda

BTCBTCLONGBitcoin bottomed at $60K as peak bearishness exhausted sellers; positive reflexive loop drives it higher.$62,973.50-18.03%›ZECZECLONGZcash is a reflexive privacy store of value breaking out of a 10-year base; insurance against Bitcoin risks.$454.75-18.07%›HYPHYPELONGHyperliquid is the leader of perps capturing RWA volume; revenue buys back the token, driving it past $100.$52.18+10.08%›

@Taiki Maeda

2mo

Why Bitcoin is About to Print A God Candle

POSITIONS · 2

TMTaiki Maeda

BTCBTCLONGMarginal sellers exhausted and Saylor bidding billions; Bitcoin grinds higher into a God candle above $80K.$62,973.50-21.67%›ZECZECLONGZcash is the most reflexive coin around; price leads narrative, so a break above $500 sends it parabolic.$454.75+10.12%›

IDEAS · 2

MSTMSTRLONGSaylor buying billions at MNAV near 1 signals a bottom in MSTR premium; reflexive flywheel keeps working.$91.65-51.03%›STRSTRCLONGBoomer demand for Stretch's 11.5% yield funds Saylor's Bitcoin buying; product working, leverage not yet crowded.$91.33-6.36%›

@Taiki Maeda

3mo

BTC Bottom is in: Breaking the 4 Year Cycle

POSITIONS · 2

TMTaiki Maeda

BTCBTCLONGBTC bottomed under $70K; Saylor's STRC-funded buying is the unpriced marginal bid that lifts price.$62,973.50-15.96%›HYPHYPELONGHolding HYPE as a simpler, lower-risk way to ride the resuming bull market.$52.18+16.35%›

IDEAS · 3

SOLSOLSHORTSelling Solana into a rally: dead L1 trade plus years of FTX estate unlocks cap the price.$72.98+14.63%›APYAPYXLONGAPYX on-chain STRC farm: TVL ripped from 40M to 130M, 5% supply for Season 1, Saylor doing Spaces with them.$4.11+7.78%›ETHETHLONGIf Tom Lee announces an ETH version of the STRC playbook, his audience buys it and he buys more ETH.$1,862.45-21.50%›

@Taiki Maeda

4mo

The Bottom Is In.

POSITIONS · 2

TMTaiki Maeda

BTCBTCLONGSaylor's Stretch product turns dollar-yield demand into relentless BTC buying, putting a floor under the price.$62,973.50-15.72%›STRSTRCLONGGrowing trust and demand for Stretch's 11.5% Bitcoin-backed yield reaches escape velocity, attracting outside capital.$91.33-8.48%›

IDEAS · 2

ETHETHLONGIf Tom Lee launches a Stretch-equivalent for Bitmine, it becomes the leverage Ethereum needs and ETH pumps.$1,862.45-20.95%›SOLSOLSHORTSolana faces structural supply overhang from FTX estate unlocks, making it a better short than ETH if markets rally.$72.98+24.22%›

@Taiki Maeda

6mo

Shorting Ethereum: My Life-Changing Trade

POSITIONS · 1

TMTaiki Maeda

ETHETHSHORTETH propped above fair value by Tom Lee buying; as he runs out of money it converges lower.$1,862.45+19.69%›

IDEAS · 8

BMNBMNRSHORTTom Lee got his bonus, ETH has retraced, and Bitmine retail holders will capitulate as the stock breaks down.$17.27+32.02%›SBESBETSHORTSharpLink bought ETH near the top and is down a billion, out of money with nothing to offer but staking.$6.03+31.63%›DFDDFDVSHORTDeFi Dev Corp is a Solana treasury scam now launching meme coins; signals more downside.$2.53+50.33%›HYPHYPELONGHYPE rose on real fundamentals while alts bled, a sign Hyperliquid has bottomed and value-accruing tokens recover first.$52.18+77.43%›

+4 more ideas →

@Taiki Maeda

7mo

Why I’m Shorting $1M of ETH (Again)

POSITIONS · 2

TMTaiki Maeda

ETHETHSHORTETH is propped up only by Tom Lee buying; once he slows, it converges far lower toward fair value.$1,862.45+34.95%›SOLSOLSHORTSolana has no marginal buyer like Tom Lee, so it trades weaker than ETH and falls.$72.98+41.56%›

IDEAS · 2

BMNBMNRSHORTBitmine is just buying ETH funded by stock issuance; chart looks terrible and unwinds when ETH falls.$17.27+40.59%›MSTMSTRSHORTMSTR risks MSCI delisting on Jan 15 forcing ~$1B of forced selling and breaking MNAV below 1.$91.65+43.81%›

@Taiki Maeda

8mo

Closed my ETH Short. What’s Next for Crypto?

POSITIONS · 1

TMTaiki Maeda

LDOLDOLONGLong Lido points farm; positioned heavily and points already valued around $80.$0.35-47.25%›

IDEAS · 4

ETHETHSHORTETH is fundamentally overvalued with no growing metrics; one more leg lower toward the $2Ks.$1,862.45+36.27%›MSTMSTRSHORTDigital asset treasury bubble is popping; MSTR mNAV near 1 and Nasdaq delisting risk drag it lower.$91.65+46.99%›BTCBTCLONGK-shaped recovery: Bitcoin and buyback coins recover; he'll bid BTC and Hyperliquid on the next leg lower.$62,973.50-27.49%›HYPHYPELONGHyperliquid is the survivor to accumulate on weakness; he'll bid it on the next leg lower.$52.18+61.16%›

@Taiki Maeda

8mo

Why I’m Short $1.5M of ETH (It’s So Over)

POSITIONS · 1

TMTaiki Maeda

ETHETHSHORTETH heading below $3K as demand collapses and token supply expands post-Oct 10$1,862.45+42.36%›

IDEAS · 3

UNIUNILONGUniswap fee switch and 10% supply burn turns UNI into pseudo-equity that should recover$4.28-44.76%›MSTMSTRSHORTMSTR premium near 1 signals speculative capital has left, bearish for the stock$91.65+56.94%›BTCBTCLONGBitcoin's monetary premium makes it a survivor that recovers ahead of altcoins$62,973.50-36.86%›

@Taiki Maeda

9mo

Why I’m Short $1M of ETH.

POSITIONS · 3

TMTaiki Maeda

ETHETHSHORTETH at half-trillion cap unsupported by dead on-chain activity; alt weakness trickles up to ETH$1,862.45+51.04%›SUISUISHORTL1 facing unlocks with identifiable sellers and no buyers gets washed out$0.68+70.26%›OPOPSHORTL2 token with unlocks and no value accrual gets smoked$0.09+78.67%›

IDEAS · 2

ARBARBSHORTL2 token gains nothing even from Robinhood partnership; infra does not accrue value$0.08+73.36%›HYPHYPELONGCoins with real buybacks survive the washout; Hyperliquid favored in K-shaped recovery$52.18+14.84%›

@Taiki Maeda

9mo

Crypto Has Topped.

POSITIONS · 1

TMTaiki Maeda

ARBARBSHORTAltcoins have topped; unrelenting VC unlocks and a wrecked holder base mean no bid to absorb sell pressure$0.08+74.59%›

IDEAS · 4

ETHETHSHORTEthereum is cooked; conviction has bled out while price stayed flat, and the Q4 pump everyone is waiting to sell into may never come$1,862.45+51.38%›BTCBTCLONGBitcoin decouples from the 4-year cycle as a macro debasement asset; buyable on a dip sub-$100K$62,973.50-40.81%›ENAENASHORTAthena's relentless unlocks crush price; love the team but the token is unownable until insiders finish selling$0.08+81.58%›SUISUISHORTSUI's heavy ongoing unlock schedule leaves no long-term buyer; insiders already loaded and selling$0.68+72.05%›

@Taiki Maeda

9mo

The Most Important Video I’ll Make This Year

POSITIONS · 2

TMTaiki Maeda

MNTMNTLONGMantle, Bybit's token, is a contrarian long that holds up and recovers strongly when alts get flushed.$0.39-81.56%›LIDLIDRLONGFarming LIDR airdrop as part of all-weather farming book$1.12-64.56%›

IDEAS · 2

BTCBTCLONGBitcoin has transcended the 4-year cycle and just grinds higher as it takes market share from alts.$62,973.50-45.30%›XPLXPLSHORTShorting Plasma's XPL token: incentive printing makes it a reflexive death spiral once farmers dump rewards.$0.07+84.12%›

@Taiki Maeda

9mo

THE BIGGEST AIRDROP OF MY LIFE

POSITIONS · 5

TMTaiki Maeda

LIDLIDRLONGLighter (LIDR) airdrop launches at far too cheap an FDV, points re-rate to $250-300 on listing$1.12-62.07%›MNTMNTLONGMantle is the one alt held with conviction on valuation and fundamentals as everything else gets rotated to stables$0.39-82.99%›XPLXPLSHORTPlasma (XPL) is overvalued vaporware at $15B FDV with $1M/day emissions, short it and collect 50% funding$0.07+92.00%›SUISUISHORTSui is overvalued low-float high-FDV with heavy emissions, short into pumps$0.68+80.27%›IPIPSHORTStory Protocol (IP) is overvalued low-float high-FDV, short and add on pumps$0.32+96.63%›

IDEAS · 1

WLFWLFISHORTWorld Liberty Financial token is overvalued vaporware, short and add into pumps$0.05+70.08%›

@Taiki Maeda

10mo

How I Airdrop Farm with $1M In Crypto (as a Humble Farmer)

POSITIONS · 2

TMTaiki Maeda

ARBARBSHORTPark $250K on Euler lending to earn ~16%, then dump the ARB reward token to its true lower value.$0.08+82.30%›IPIPSHORTShort Story Protocol on a perp DEX: $14B FDV making $10/day, get paid funding while it bleeds.$0.32+97.67%›

IDEAS · 1

MNTMNTLONGMantle is a stealth long because Bybit is closely tied to making it their token.$0.39-77.52%›