Semi Doped — sniff.trade

Semi Doped

Semi Doped - 'The Daily Brew of Semiconductors,' a Substack of daily semiconductor news and technical analysis co-written by RF-semiconductor PhD…

27 episodes · 79 trades · 3 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@Semi Doped

3w

Daily Update - July 8th, 2026 — Apple tests CXMT DRAM, DeepSeek and Zhipu design their own AI chips, Amazon raises $25B

IDEAS · 2

AMZAMZNLONGAmazon will successfully monetize its massive AI infrastructure buildout through direct AWS cloud revenue and e-commerce enhancements.$267.97+7.61%›NVTNVTSSHORTNavitas faces severe existential risk as Wolfspeed's patent infringement lawsuit targets its entire GaN and SiC product portfolio.$11.05+16.22%›

@Semi Doped

3w

Daily Update - July 7th, 2026 — Anthropic leases $19B data center from TeraWulf, Broadcom extends Apple chip deal to 203

IDEAS · 3

WULWULFLONGTeraWulf secures a massive 20-year, $19 billion data center lease with Anthropic, locking in a highly lucrative long-term AI infrastructure client.$18.01-11.87%›AVGAVGOLONGBroadcom extends its custom silicon deal with Apple through 2031, cementing its dominance in custom ASICs and crushing bearish narratives about losing the account.$382.68+2.49%›0140148.HKLONGKingboard is successfully hiking copper-clad laminate prices by up to 15% as AI server demand outstrips supply and raw material costs rise.$39.90IDEA›

@Semi Doped

3w

Daily Update - July 6th, 2026 — Nvidia Kyber delayed, Nvidia's revenue-share financing, Intel price hikes, $510B in AI f

IDEAS · 3

AMDAMDLONGAMD is positioned to win AI rack share as Nvidia's competing Kyber NVL144 faces a 12-month delay into 2028.$485.48-11.92%›NVDNVDALONGNvidia's new revenue-sharing financing model for cloud providers expands its addressable market and smooths out financial lumpiness.$198.05-0.20%›INTINTCLONGIntel's financials are set to surge as the company successfully hikes CPU prices by up to thousands of dollars amid sustained high demand.$88.59-27.77%›

@Semi Doped

4w

Daily Update - July 3rd, 2026 CXMT filed a $4.3 billion IPO and secured a $3 billion DRAM deal with Tencent, positionin

IDEAS · 2

METMETALONGMeta is transforming its massive AI compute investments into a high-margin cash cow by selling excess GPU capacity as a merchant cloud provider.$566.32-4.71%›SMHSMHSHORTMassive government-level investments into memory chip expansion signal incoming oversupply and the beginning of the end for the semiconductor cycle.$536.25+8.44%›

@Semi Doped

4w

🎙️ Semi Doped: Micron's Record Profits, Apple's CXMT Plea... AI is Eating All the Memory! — Micron's 85% gross margin,

IDEAS · 3

MUMULONGMicron is capturing an AI super cycle with gross margins expanding to 85% as data center buyers pay any price for supply.$809.84-15.08%›AAPAAPLSHORTApple faces margin compression and demand destruction as unprecedented mid-cycle price hikes fail to offset soaring memory costs.$303.51-0.41%›GPRGPROSHORTGoPro is facing bankruptcy as soaring memory costs destroy the unit economics of its discretionary consumer hardware.$0.75-4.81%›

@Semi Doped

4w

Daily Update - July 2nd, 2026 Meta planning to sell AI compute has triggered a market selloff in neoclouds, and in gene

IDEAS · 4

METMETALONGMeta's new cloud business turns its massive AI capital expenditures into a direct revenue stream by selling excess compute.$566.32-8.61%›CRWCRWVSHORTCoreWeave is losing its neocloud market share as former massive customers like Meta pivot to selling their own excess AI compute.$71.12+18.04%›MUMULONGMicron's memory supply is becoming so constrained that the auto industry is now forced to sign long-term agreements to lock in capacity.$809.84-21.07%›ASXASXLONGASE is capitalizing on acute AI supply constraints by hiking its advanced packaging quotes by more than 20%.$35.32-16.90%›

@Semi Doped

4w

Daily Update - June 30th, 2026 — Anthropic Claude on Azure, Taiwan raids Super Micro, Digital Realty acquires Blackstone

IDEAS · 1

NVDNVDALONGNvidia captures a new total addressable market as Anthropic shifts workloads from Trainium to Blackwell GPUs on Azure.$198.05-0.38%›

@Semi Doped

4w

🎙️ Semi Doped: Qualcomm's HBC Memory, Alphawave, Modular, and more — High Bandwidth Compute, the AI 250 accelerator, th

IDEAS · 2

QCOQCOMLONGQualcomm is positioned to dominate edge AI by combining its low-power hardware portfolio with the newly acquired Modular software stack.$150.70-20.33%›SMHSMHLONGThe memory sector faces massive structural demand as near-memory compute and edge AI applications require significantly more DRAM wafers.$592.29-9.70%›

@Semi Doped

1mo

Daily Update - June 26th, 2026

IDEAS · 5

MUMULONGMemory demand keeps climbing as edge AI arrives; Korean memcaps ride a multi-year capex wave up$809.84-27.45%›MRVMRVLLONGMarvell plasmonic modulators 300-500x smaller leap optical networking into the 3.2T generation$184.38-29.99%›MKSMKSILONGMKS Atotech Guangzhou expansion is a panel-level packaging play on glass substrates and CoPoS$295.66-22.61%›ASXASXLONGAdvanced packaging is the binding bottleneck through 2030, beating transistor scaling; ASE wins$35.32-14.23%›

+1 more ideas →

@Semi Doped

1mo

Daily Update - June 25th, 2026

IDEAS · 3

QCOQCOMLONGQualcomm has spare TSMC capacity and a Meta deal, making it a credible AI CPU play in datacenters$150.70-25.94%›AVGAVGOLONGOpenAI's Jalapeño locks Broadcom in as anchor custom-silicon partner, deepening a multi-year ASIC revenue ramp.$382.68+1.50%›MUMULONGHBM stays sold out and Micron locks margins via direct multi-year deals, turning memory into structural AI cash flow.$809.84-33.77%›

@Semi Doped

1mo

Daily Update - June 24th, 2026

IDEAS · 2

CBRCBRSSHORTCerebras can't meet sky-high AI data center share hopes, so beating estimates still sells off$201.78-1.42%›SNDSNDKLONGKV cache offloading turns NAND into AI memory, and the purest flash maker captures the demand surge directly.$1,224.71-38.15%›

@Semi Doped

1mo

Daily Update - June 23rd, 2026

IDEAS · 3

QCOQCOMLONGAdding Lattner and Modular would be a slam dunk for Qualcomm's AI chip software push$150.70-27.87%›SNDSNDKLONGYMTC hitting 13% NAND share is a shortage symptom, not price war; NAND is sold out at record prices.$1,224.71-42.95%›GEVGEVLONGBehind-the-meter gas becomes the hyperscaler playbook, making turbines the chokepoint and lifting GE Vernova backlog and pricing.$973.70-8.43%›

@Semi Doped

1mo

Daily Update - June 22nd, 2026

IDEAS · 6

NVDNVDASHORTAmazon and Google selling AI chips directly erodes Nvidia's accelerator monopoly$198.05+6.40%›AMDAMDLONGMangoBoost's turnkey DPU racks squeeze more tokens from AMD hardware, making it an acquisition target$485.48-8.99%›INTINTCLONGApple-Intel US chip deal validates Intel foundry strategy and pulls volume from TSMC$88.59-37.17%›LITLITELONGCopper limits at 1.6T and 3.2T force a structural shift to silicon photonics in AI interconnects$728.59-13.90%›

+2 more ideas →

@Semi Doped

1mo

Daily Update - June 19th, 2026

IDEAS · 2

INTINTCLONGApple sourcing chips from Intel validates Intel Foundry, a historic win that re-rates the stock$88.59-32.31%›AVGAVGOSHORTIf AI tooling democratizes custom chip design, Broadcom's expertise moat erodes and its ASIC margins compress.$378.91+6.10%›

@Semi Doped

1mo

Daily Update - June 18th, 2026

IDEAS · 6

WDCWDCLONGAI buildout starves mature-node memory, NOR Flash and SLC NAND prices keep ripping higher.$548.57-27.07%›SSNSSNLFLONGSamsung wins contract chip overflow from Google, AMD, BYD as TSMC capacity falls short.$64.34-2.08%›SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix leads HBM4E race with 12-layer samples, extending its grip on Nvidia memory.—IDEA›AEHAEHRLONGAehr lands follow-on burn-in order for AI silicon photonics transceivers, likely Broadcom.$81.32-26.47%›

+2 more ideas →

@Semi Doped

1mo

Daily Update - June 17th, 2026

IDEAS · 5

INTINTCLONGIntel 18A-P on-schedule risk production plus EMIB edge wins customers fleeing oversubscribed TSMC 2nm/3nm$88.59-25.88%›TSMTSMSHORTTSMC wrong that CoWoS scales to 14x reticle; forced to glass panels where Intel already leads$397.01+7.19%›AMKAMKRLONGAmkor is the neutral arms dealer of advanced packaging, partnered with both TSMC and Intel$50.41-41.94%›NOKNOKLONGNokia optical packaging expansion rides the AI optical race squarely in its expertise$9.00-35.77%›

+1 more ideas →

@Semi Doped

1mo

Daily Update - June 16th, 2026

IDEAS · 4

LITLITELONGVCSELs on GaAs can seize the AI scale-up optics TAM by escaping InP supply constraints$728.59-22.28%›AMDAMDLONGFlash-as-DRAM is the next big theme as DRAM price and capacity cap agentic AI workloads$485.48-10.37%›TSMTSMLONGInnolux gains as TSMC's panel-level partner for glass-substrate AI packaging$397.01-10.09%›ERIERICSHORTNvidia GPU radio-unit chips threaten Ericsson's purpose-built silicon moat, pressuring hardware sales and margins.$9.81+21.40%›

@Semi Doped

1mo

Daily Update - June 15th, 2026

IDEAS · 1

NVDNVDASHORTChina replacing Nvidia with SMIC-built domestic GPUs makes the lost China franchise structural, not cyclical.$198.05+3.45%›

@Semi Doped

1mo

TIL: The Calculator Wars And the Revenge That Took a Decade

IDEAS · 2

NVDNVDALONGNvidia integrating downward into full systems repeats TI's playbook, owning the AI hardware stack$198.05-2.52%›AVGAVGOLONGHyperscalers in-sourcing AI chips routes through Broadcom's ASIC co-design, lifting its AI revenue and re-rating the stock.$382.68-1.19%›

@Semi Doped

1mo

🎙️Computex Mania 2026: Optics and Power

IDEAS · 5

MRVMRVLLONGMarvell is repositioning as the dominant optical interconnect company as the copper wall hits the rack$184.38-32.92%›INTINTCLONGIntel Foundry's advanced packaging prowess (EMIB, Foveros 3D, 18A) makes it a credible second source to TSMC$88.59-23.17%›VRTVRTLONGVertiv benefits as prefab modular AI infrastructure blocks halve data center deployment time$238.51-18.36%›LITLITELONGCPO yield stalls push AI optics toward near-package and pluggable transceivers, lifting EML-laser leader Lumentum.$728.59-19.99%›

+1 more ideas →

@Semi Doped

1mo

Daily Update - June 12th, 2026

IDEAS · 4

TSMTSMLONGTSMC raises 3nm 15% into sold-out capacity, adding ~$1.5B/quarter of near pure-profit revenue$397.01-5.18%›GLWGLWLONGCorning becomes core AI infra play: custom AWS and Nvidia fiber deals mean high ASPs and sticky customers$137.86-22.95%›ALAALABLONGSemi index inclusion forces mechanical ETF buying into AI names, boosting prices near term$307.36-16.53%›INTINTCLONGIntel 18A gaining traction and EMIB rivaling CoWoS gives Intel real foundry upside$88.59-23.17%›

@Semi Doped

2mo

TIL: Things once found in a now-flooded Swedish ditch are hiding inside your electronics

IDEAS · 3

MPMPLONGChina controls 70% of rare earth mining and 90% of refining and is weaponizing it via export controls$40.70-36.30%›LYSLYSDYLONGMount Weld is the main rare earth door that does not open onto China, valuable as supply diversifies$9.99-28.48%›LITLITELONGOptical light-sourcing moves from telecom fiber onto chips; AI bandwidth demand lifts the laser supplier.$728.59-16.79%›

@Semi Doped

2mo

🎙️Huawei's Tau Scaling Law: Is the "EUV Killer" Real?

IDEAS · 2

ASMASMLLONGLogic stacking means two DUV wafers per chip, so stacking is bullish for ASML not bearish.$1,620.61+0.24%›LITLITELONGCo-packaged optics kills the DSP and puts optical engines next to compute; the photonic-engine supplier wins.$728.59-14.20%›

@Semi Doped

2mo

🎧 Cerebras IPO

IDEAS · 1

LITLITELONGDemand for its lasers is so strong there are shortages, a sign the AI buildout is pulling hard on its products.$728.59-25.27%›

@Semi Doped

2mo

🎧 Power as the Next Physics Wall for AI

IDEAS · 1

COHCOHRLONGCoherent is ramping bigger 6-inch wafers to make laser chips much cheaper and faster, which should lift its profit margins.$260.59-17.73%›

@Semi Doped

2mo

🎧 CapEx is just Memory Tax Now, Deepseek V4 NAND impact

IDEAS · 1

SNDSNDKLONGSanDisk is raising prices so hard its margins hit software-company levels, and AI's hunger for storage looks durable, not a quick spike.$1,224.71+0.97%›

@Semi Doped

3mo

🎧 Google’s Networking Innovations

IDEAS · 3

GOOGOOGLLONGGoogle just made a once-a-decade leap in how its AI data centers are wired, giving it a real edge in running AI cheaply and fast.$355.17+2.37%›LITLITELONGGoogle now builds its entire AI network on optical switches, and Lumentum is the named supplier of those switches.$728.59-14.15%›ARMARMLONGGoogle chose ARM-based CPUs to run alongside its newest AI chips, showing ARM is now a fully credible rival to Intel-style x86 chips.$242.17+19.04%›