Not Boring — sniff.trade

Not Boring

Not Boring - Packy McCormick's deep narrative newsletter on ambitious startups, tech strategy, and markets.

8 episodes · 21 trades · 1 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@Not Boring

1mo

Return on Tokens (ROT)

IDEAS · 3

MSFMSFTSHORTLab AI revenue went parabolic on token-maxxing waste, and the spell is breaking; consumption revenue is at risk$473.92-16.42%›BABBABALONGRouting work to cheap Chinese open source models displaces premium US model spend as cost discipline returns$123.08+3.93%›CRMCRMSHORTIf agents are the wrong architecture for enterprise work, the vendor that bet the company on Agentforce reprices down.$187.79-6.29%›

@Not Boring

1mo

Expanding the Radius of Daily Life

IDEAS · 5

TSLTSLALONGTesla self-driving and FSD adoption is the de-facto standard buyers can't live without$309.36-21.88%›ACHACHRLONGArcher is flight-testing daily and building Stellantis-backed capacity for 650 units a year by 2030$4.67-16.89%›EHEHSHORTEHang's air-taxi economics stay weak with a tiny fleet, high ground ops, and vertiport overhead$5.10+35.54%›JOBJOBYLONGReal estate inside expanded flight radius re-rates as 200-mile drives become 45-min flights.$7.09-24.84%›

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@Not Boring

1mo

America Spins on Westmag

IDEAS · 5

USAUSARLONGWestmag becomes the winning American motor and actuator maker for drones and robots by scaling first.$15.08-50.54%›BYDBYDDYLONGBYD's vertical battery supply chain makes it the world EV leader, a compounding component edge.$11.71-1.69%›BOTBOTTLONGIf you're long robotics you're long actuators; humanoid demand puts actuator TAM in the hundreds of billions$41.57-22.22%›MPMPLONGOFAC/FCC actions force US drone makers to dual-source domestic, lifting US neo-magnet suppliers MP and Vulcan$40.69-41.45%›

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@Not Boring

3mo

The Great Blue Frontier

IDEAS · 3

TMCTMCLONGDeep-sea metals are essential to EVs/AI and the rules are loosening, so the one company forcing a mining license could be hugely valuable.$3.55-39.36%›KRKKRKNFLONGIf the ocean gets industrialized like space did, the public company selling the survey-grade sonar that makes cheap robots useful should win.$4.09-33.55%›OIIOIISHORTOld crewed-ship ocean and defense giants are too wedded to expensive human-on-boat methods and will get disrupted by cheap autonomous robots.$48.23-23.70%›

@Not Boring

4mo

IDEAS · 2

UBEUBERLONGUber's losses mirrored Amazon's strategic burn, mispriced in 2022 cash-burn depths, now a $150B winner$71.55+0.48%›ANTANTHROPICSHORTAnthropic's API margins may be inflated by wasteful token-maxxing, not durable demand; pop deflates the implied valuation.—IDEA›

@Not Boring

4mo

Electromagnetism Secretly Runs the World

IDEAS · 1

QRVQRVOLONGThe market for the radio chips inside phones, radars and satellites will grow much faster than Wall Street expects as everything goes electric.$89.97+12.47%›

@Not Boring

4mo

Costless Sacrifice

IDEAS · 1

NVDNVDALONGAI use keeps growing because everyone is forced to use it just to keep up, so demand for the chips that generate AI tokens keeps rising.$198.04+9.60%›

@Not Boring

5mo

Power in the Age of Intelligence

IDEAS · 1

MSFMSFTLONGThe giant tech firms already own their industries and get stronger as AI gets cheaper, so they keep eating more value.$473.92+16.67%›