JP Insights — sniff.trade

JP Insights

JP Insights - a pseudonymous solo Substack (author 'JP', ex-audit background) grading the companies powering AI's physical layer: semiconductors,…

12 episodes · 42 trades · 2 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@JP Insights

2d

Five Earnings Reports Before Vertiv and Flex Take Over the Day Bloom Energy, Hubbell, SK hynix, Teradyne and Corning al

IDEAS · 2

BEBELONGBloom Energy's installed base is finally becoming an asset as service margins hit double digits and new infrastructure financing unlocks long-term power deals.$207.11+22.68%›GLWGLWLONGCorning is moving deeper inside AI systems to supply passive photonics, backed by multibillion-dollar hyperscaler agreements that validate its massive growth targets.$137.89+9.18%›

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6d

AI companies are not planning for a slowdown. They are trying to secure 2030. The market still seems determined to find

IDEAS · 2

MUMULONGMicron's binding take-or-pay agreements through 2030 establish price floors that structurally de-risk the historically brutal memory cycle.$810.17-13.11%›SSNSSNLFLONGSamsung's Broadcom partnership provides the real-world volume needed to validate its unified memory, foundry, and packaging stack.$64.31-2.91%›

@JP Insights

1w

Nokia Q2: The Positioning Is Starting to Show Up in the Economics — The demand was already visible. Q2 gave us the first

IDEAS · 1

NOKNOKLONGNokia's AI and Cloud order volumes are translating to underlying economics, with Network Infrastructure operating profit jumping 42%.$9.00+0.89%›

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3w

Vertiv: Why It Stays One of My Highest-Conviction Positions — Start with what the company actually builds. Then the rece

IDEAS · 9

VRTVRTLONGVertiv captures rising dollar content per megawatt as AI data centers densify and require integrated power and cooling systems.$238.34-21.80%›ETNETNLONGEaton is capturing the AI power constraint with data center orders up 240% and a new liquid cooling position via the Boyd Thermal deal.$424.19+7.76%›MUMULONGMicron captures the memory layer of the AI buildout, which must be physically deployed regardless of which software models win.$810.17-18.60%›NVDNVDALONGNvidia dominates the core compute layer of the AI buildout, serving as the foundational hardware driving data center expansion.$197.91-0.04%›

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4w

What I Learned Reading about Forgent — A very good business wrapped in a much harder equity This is an exercise I like

IDEAS · 1

POWPOWLLONGPowell provides critical data center electrical bottleneck exposure at a much less demanding multiple than peers, free of sponsor overhangs.$213.16-25.45%›

@JP Insights

1mo

IDEAS · 4

IQEIQE.LLONGIQE owns qualified InP epitaxy on the AI optics critical path, but its own numbers have not turned yet$39.83-22.66%›AXTAXTILONGAXT sits on the tightest layer of the InP chain, backlog over $100m and doubling capacity twice$60.19-29.63%›LITLITELONGAixtron order intake up 30% on laser datacom; equipment cycle turning for InP capacity buildout$728.50-14.22%›COHCOHRLONGCoherent doubling InP output ahead of plan, datacomm revenue up 40%, integrating the bottleneck in-house$260.32-32.11%›

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1mo

Applied Optoelectronics, Graded

IDEAS · 1

LITLITELONGStructural EML laser shortage hands merchant suppliers sold-out books and pricing power, re-rating Lumentum.$728.50-20.45%›

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1mo

Broadcom: Consensus Models the Guidance. The Order Book Models Something Else.

IDEAS · 1

MRVMRVLLONGConnectivity layer takes ~30% of AI capex; pure-play networking silicon re-rates as a structural beneficiary.$184.55-32.86%›

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1mo

IDEAS · 1

CRDCRDOLONGCredo's copper moat plus optical extension earns Confirmed, but price already pays for the unproven 2027 ramp$211.47-3.36%›

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1mo

Time to Grade the Connectivity Layer

IDEAS · 2

NVDNVDALONGOwns Nvidia in his Best Ideas basket; controls the connectivity architecture buried in a larger business.$197.91-3.69%›CRDCRDOSHORTCRDO ran far ahead of its quarter; beat-and-raise prints sell off, so the post-earnings fade drifts lower.$211.47-0.57%›

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1mo

After Memory, I Am Watching Connectivity

IDEAS · 15

AVGAVGOLONGBroadcom owns custom AI silicon roadmaps but record AI growth still sold off on a held target.$382.97-6.84%›ANEANETLONGArista turns networking into a utilization lever and is committing $8.9B ahead of a lasting shortage.$178.66+5.87%›CRDCRDOLONGCredo is the purest data-movement play, revenue tripled, but sold off on a strong print.$211.47-1.14%›ALAALABLONGAstera Labs proves the bottleneck lives inside the rack, growing 93% at 76% gross margins.$307.04-15.54%›

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@JP Insights

1mo

Marvell at Computex: The Bottleneck Moves Again?

IDEAS · 3

MRVMRVLLONGConnectivity is the new AI bottleneck; Marvell spans the whole stack and is structurally positioned to win it$184.55-43.27%›CRDCRDOLONGCredo wins short-reach copper now and is following the constraint into optics, the same move Marvell makes earlier$211.47-6.72%›LITLITELONGLumentum and Coherent are the cleaner reads on the optical component bottleneck as connectivity scales$728.50-27.36%›