Dwarkesh Podcast — sniff.trade

Dwarkesh Podcast

Dwarkesh Patel interviews researchers, founders, and operators at the frontier of AI, science, and economics.

24 episodes · 85 trades · 18 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@Dwarkesh Podcast

1mo

What does the next training paradigm look like?

IDEAS · 1

CRWCRWVLONGIf computer-use progress means grinding thousands of parallel rollouts, the GPU cloud renting that compute compounds.$71.19-27.51%›

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1mo

The GPU Pricing Paradox – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell

IDEAS · 1

NVDNVDALONGAI keeps demand for compute insatiable, so the share of the economy spent on compute rises and GPU rents stay high.$197.91-6.60%›

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1mo

Sarah Paine - Why Putin and Xi can't escape geography

IDEAS · 2

BABBABASHORTChina's economy runs on sea lanes that close in any conflict, a permanent geographic discount on its assets.$123.19-1.36%›ITAITALONGA Second Cold War redirects capital from trade efficiency to rearmament, and defense contractors' order books compound.$242.28+4.55%›

@Dwarkesh Podcast

1mo

The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell

IDEAS · 2

NVDNVDALONGIf AI compute demand never satiates, GPU pricing power persists and NVIDIA's margins and revenue keep compounding.$197.91-10.84%›ANTANTHROPICLONGPrivatized AI value is now coming public; Anthropic's S-1 starts the re-rating of the biggest private AI name.—IDEA›

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2mo

What rebuilding AlphaGo teaches us about self-play, RL, and future of LLMs - Eric Jang

IDEAS · 2

NVDNVDALONGIf intelligence falls out of raw scale, the compute owner compounds while efficiency tricks get arbitraged away.$197.91-15.09%›CRWCRWVLONGRL's bits-per-flop problem pushes spend off the training update onto rollout/inference compute, where CoreWeave bills.$71.19-35.07%›

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3mo

How GPT, Claude, and Gemini are actually trained and served – Reiner Pope

IDEAS · 2

SKHSKHXLONGHBM bandwidth is the hard ceiling on AI scaling, and the dominant supplier owns the scarce asset and the pricing.—IDEA›NVDNVDALONGRack-scale NVLink fabric (8 to 72 to 576 GPUs) is the real moat; rivals can't drop-in match it, so NVIDIA's premium holds.$197.91-5.47%›

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3mo

Jensen Huang – Will Nvidia’s moat persist?

POSITIONS · 2

DPDwarkesh Podcast

NVDNVDALONGNvidia's moat is durable: electron-to-token transformation is too hard to commoditize even as software cheapens$197.91+2.63%›OPEOPENAILONGNvidia's OpenAI stake (~$30B pre-IPO) captures upside as the labs become extraordinary companies—IDEA›

IDEAS · 4

SNPSNPSLONGAgents make tool-maker software companies skyrocket as tool instances explode, not get commoditized$388.71-8.35%›MUMULONGMicron is a key memory winner as HBM and LPDDR go from specialty to mainstream computing$808.37+86.50%›LITLITELONGSilicon photonics suppliers Lumentum and Coherent benefit as Nvidia reshapes the optical supply chain$726.77-12.10%›IGVIGVSHORTAI agents break per-seat SaaS pricing, so the software basket re-rates from premium to discount and keeps bleeding.$92.72-15.39%›

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3mo

Michael Nielsen – Why aliens will have a different tech stack than us

IDEAS · 1

BRKBRKRLONGAlphaFold's value came from decades of wet-lab structural data, so the instrument makers that generate it capture the upside.$61.55+65.58%›

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4mo

Terence Tao – How the world's top mathematician uses AI

IDEAS · 2

PLTPLTRLONGAI has collapsed the cost of idea generation to near zero, making verification and evaluation the new scarce bottleneck in science and industry$125.84-18.28%›NVDNVDALONGAI's 1-2% success rate on hard problems is transformative when applied at massive scale, making compute the critical lever for scientific breakthroughs$197.91+13.84%›

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4mo

Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute

IDEAS · 14

MUMULONGMemory prices keep doubling as KV cache and HBM demand swamp slow-to-build fabs. Long memory.$808.37+96.17%›ASMASMLLONGASML is the ultimate AI bottleneck by 2028-29; only it makes EUV and can't scale fast. Long ASML.$1,624.06+22.68%›NVDNVDALONGNVIDIA locked up most leading wafer, memory and PCB capacity by ordering early; supply secured = margin.$197.91+12.02%›CRWCRWVLONGAn H100 is worth more today than 3 years ago; GPU depreciation cycles are longer than bears claim.$71.19-11.05%›

+10 more ideas →

@Dwarkesh Podcast

4mo

The most important question nobody's asking about AI.

IDEAS · 3

ANTANTHROPICSHORTOpen weights matching the frontier strips pricing power from pure-play model labs, capping Anthropic's premium.—IDEA›ANTANTHROPICLONGInference cost per capability falls 10x a year while usage explodes faster, so model-layer revenue and value compound.—IDEA›PLTPLTRLONGAI turns surveillance from labor-limited to software-unlimited, repricing demand for state video-intelligence platforms.$125.84-17.82%›

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5mo

Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”

POSITIONS · 1

DPDwarkesh Podcast

ANTANTHROPICLONGAI revenue compounds ~10x/year into hundreds of billions, so frontier-lab compute spend keeps scaling fast—IDEA›

IDEAS · 3

NVDNVDALONGUS export controls on advanced chips to China will keep failing because chip-sale money overrides the policy$197.91+7.55%›KOIKOIDLONGAI will revolutionize robotics within ~1-2 years of reaching country-of-geniuses, unlocking trillions in robot revenue$36.27+1.87%›MEDMEDPLONGIf AI floods the trial-and-approval pipeline, clinical-trial execution becomes the scarce resource and CROs re-rate up.$565.22+31.13%›

@Dwarkesh Podcast

5mo

Elon Musk – "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

POSITIONS · 1

DPDwarkesh Podcast

TSLTSLALONGTesla becomes the West's humanoid robot winner via custom actuators, hand, and self-driving AI$309.94-23.87%›

IDEAS · 9

GEVGEVLONGGas turbine vanes and blades are the choke point on Earth AI power; backlog sold out through 2030$971.64+30.08%›MUMULONGMemory shortage is the tightest squeeze in the AI buildout; DDR prices going ballistic$808.37+107.87%›TSMTSMLONGTSMC chip capacity is the multi-year limiting factor on AI; fully booked, fabs ramping flat out$396.01+18.54%›ASMASMLLONGASML is the irreplaceable choke point in chips; even China can't replicate it, so demand is locked in$1,624.06+18.33%›

+5 more ideas →

@Dwarkesh Podcast

7mo

Adam Marblestone – AI is missing something fundamental about the brain

IDEAS · 2

ANTANTHROPICLONGFormal verification flips from academic backwater to mainstream as LLMs generate provable, unhackable software at scale.—IDEA›AAPAAPLLONGConsumer-scale brain scanning is an AI data moat, and Apple owns the device fleet plus EEG-earbud patents to capture it.$302.79+12.10%›

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7mo

What are we scaling?

IDEAS · 2

OPEOPENAISHORTRLVR has no reliable scaling trend, so reasoning-model moats are overhyped and OpenAI's valuation gets repriced down.—IDEA›NVDNVDASHORTAI revenue stays orders of magnitude below AGI-pricing, so the capex buildout decelerates and its chief beneficiary derates.$197.91-4.07%›

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7mo

Sarah Paine – Why Russia Lost the Cold War

IDEAS · 1

TLTTLTSHORTDebt piling up without tax reform lifts the term premium, so long-dated Treasuries keep bleeding.$82.36+4.22%›

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8mo

Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

IDEAS · 4

NVDNVDASHORTPre-training scaling hits a data wall; the next gains come from research, not just more compute$197.91-14.68%›OPEOPENAISHORTToday's eval-topping models have weak generalization, so AI revenue stays far behind benchmark hype—IDEA›GOOGOOGLLONGGemini's pre-training edge lets Google extract more from scaling than rivals$356.00+11.01%›ANTANTHROPICLONGIf AI feels powerful, safety becomes the industry constraint, and the safety-first lab's positioning becomes its moat.—IDEA›

@Dwarkesh Podcast

8mo

Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI

POSITIONS · 1

DPDwarkesh Podcast

MSFMSFTLONGMicrosoft mints a coding-agent layer that grows regardless of which model wins, GitHub at all-time high$472.81-8.40%›

IDEAS · 4

WCLWCLDSHORTSaaS business models break as AI COGS soars; high-COGS per-user software companies underperform$35.35-0.47%›ORCORCLLONGOracle scales from a fifth of Microsoft's size to bigger by 2027 as a single-customer bare-metal hoster$127.34-42.92%›NVDNVDALONGNvidia stays the default AI accelerator; even prior-gen Nvidia beats custom silicon on fleet TCO$197.91+5.09%›SNOSNOWLONGAgents turning Office artifacts into queryable backends grows the database layer faster than raw compute.$294.45+6.80%›

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9mo

Sarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise

IDEAS · 1

KWEKWEBLONGRussia is being hollowed out by Ukraine while China quietly absorbs its Central Asian sphere; bet against Russia, with China.$28.65-27.37%›

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9mo

Andrej Karpathy — “We’re summoning ghosts, not building animals”

IDEAS · 2

TSLTSLALONGTesla's camera-first self-driving is the scalable winner over Waymo's sensor-heavy approach$309.94-28.49%›CHGCHGGSHORTAI tutors that explain concepts for free gut the paid answer-wrapper model; Chegg's moat is structurally gone.$0.96+24.85%›

@Dwarkesh Podcast

10mo

Fully autonomous robots are much closer than you think – Sergey Levine

IDEAS · 1

FXIFXILONGChina dominates the robot hardware and supply chain, giving it a structurally stronger robotics feedback loop.$37.06-6.94%›

@Dwarkesh Podcast

10mo

Sarah Paine – How Hitler almost starved Britain

IDEAS · 1

EUAEUADLONGAn endless Russia war forces Europe to rearm for years, lifting EU defense primes' orders and shares.$44.08+2.22%›

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11mo

China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

IDEAS · 4

TANTANLONGSolar costs fall 43% per doubling of production, accelerating; it will power most new AI data centers$49.85+22.53%›LITLITLONGBatteries perform temporal arbitrage and cannibalize the grid; grid asset utilization falls year after year$2.09-95.45%›FSLFSLRLONGUS can stand up automated domestic solar manufacturing in ~2 years; not far behind China and far cheaper$209.11+5.87%›XLEXLELONGIf energy throughput becomes the real measure of AI-era economic scale, energy producers re-rate as the binding input.$60.64+39.47%›

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2y

Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history

IDEAS · 12

NVDNVDALONGAI compute buildout becomes an industrial process; Nvidia data center revenue explodes from a few billion to $20B+ a quarter$197.91+71.73%›TSMTSMLONGTSMC gains AI beta as AI grows from a couple percent to 20%+ of its business by 2027$396.01+156.51%›MUMULONGThe whole AI hardware stack beyond GPUs (memory, networking, power gear) catches the AI beta as the boom broadens$808.37+539.55%›GOOGOOGLLONGGoogle's stock explodes once AI revenue hits $100B and it gets credited with the AI beta$356.00+109.52%›

+8 more ideas →