Convequity — sniff.trade

Convequity

Convequity - a technology and semiconductor equity-research newsletter (Convequity Ltd, founded 2019) publishing deep single-name investment theses…

11 episodes · 56 trades · 3 speakers

all speakers ▾

TRACKED TRADES

@Convequity

1w

Rebalancing into 800V Power, Hybrid Bonding & Asymmetric Compute — An excerpt from our latest portfolio rebalance, focus

IDEAS · 9

ENPENPHLONGEnphase's bidirectional power conversion expertise positions it to capture the 800V DC data center transition at attractive multiples.$37.91-3.02%›SEDSEDGLONGSolarEdge's early move into solid-state transformers for AI data centers offers asymmetric upside at post-correction valuations.$41.28-16.14%›NVTNVTSLONGNavitas is the highest-beta pure-play on the gallium nitride 800V DC transition as AI data centers demand higher-voltage architectures.$11.05-12.14%›MPWMPWRLONGMonolithic Power Systems maintains strong design-win momentum on power-hungry GPU boards as racks transition to 800V DC architectures.$1,411-0.25%›

+5 more ideas →

@Convequity

1mo

SpaceX and the Orbital AI Infrastructure Play

IDEAS · 10

MTSMTSILONGMACOM is the top photonics pick, content per terminal scales superlinearly with space DC bandwidth$248.16-33.31%›GLWGLWSHORTCorning is a structural loser as compute migrates from fiber-heavy terrestrial DCs to zero-fiber orbit$137.89+36.67%›STMSTMLONGSTMicro becomes a permanent PAT and power-management play, a socket photonic integration cannot displace$51.48-27.02%›COHCOHRLONGCoherent gets real incremental free-space optics and EDFA wins, but not transformative at corporate scale$260.54-32.54%›

+6 more ideas →

@Convequity

1mo

SpaceX Isn’t Just a Rocket Company Anymore

IDEAS · 1

SPASPACEXLONGSpaceX is undervalued as the market fails to recognize its potential as a frontier AI infrastructure provider.$108.28-29.27%›

@Convequity

1mo

Convequity's AI Bubble Barometer

IDEAS · 3

SPASPACEXLONGSpaceX is successfully monetizing its AI infrastructure through large-scale compute contracts.$108.28-44.01%›NVDNVDALONGDemand for Nvidia's GPUs remains exceptionally strong due to the ongoing large-scale AI infrastructure build-out.$198.01-1.66%›MSFMSFTLONGMajor hyperscalers involved in AI are fairly valued with improving fundamentals, presenting a directionally positive investment opportunity.$473.92+23.01%›

@Convequity

2mo

POET Technologies - The AI Optical Interposer Thesis

IDEAS · 1

POEPOETLONGPOET Technologies is a high-conviction, high-risk long opportunity due to its innovative Optical Interposer technology and the Lumilens partnership, which positions it to address critical AI-driven optical interconnect bottlenecks.$6.87-49.14%›

@Convequity

2mo

No ALD, No AI: The Case for ASM International

IDEAS · 1

ASMASMLONGASM International is well-positioned for multi-year growth due to its dominance in Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD), which is critical for the semiconductor industry's shift towards materials precision and 3D architectures at advanced nodes.$5.36-16.83%›

@Convequity

2mo

SiTime: The Quiet Layer That Keeps AI in Sync

IDEAS · 1

SITSITMLONGSiTime is well-positioned for significant growth due to its critical role in precision timing for AI infrastructure and mobile platforms, further strengthened by the Renesas acquisition.$526.94-36.71%›

@Convequity

2mo

The Bottleneck Heuristic — Where Scarcity Meets Capability in the AI Value Chain

IDEAS · 8

AVGAVGOLONGBroadcom (AVGO) is a structural winner in the custom ASIC market, solving the compute bottleneck with its proven design partnership model.$382.75-12.43%›MRVMRVLSHORTMarvell (MRVL) faces challenges due to its less successful custom ASIC partnerships, leading to underperforming systems and deployment delays.$184.36-7.19%›AMZAMZNSHORTAmazon's (AMZN) in-house custom ASIC strategy with Trainium has been costly and underperforming, leading to significant compensatory investments.$267.97+2.70%›CRDCRDOSHORTCredo (CRDO) is vulnerable as Active Electrical Cables (AEC) are being superseded by optical interconnects for next-generation bandwidth densities.$211.36-1.30%›

+4 more ideas →

@Convequity

2mo

The Nuclear Investment Thesis: Uranium, HALEU, and the Reactors Racing to Power the AI Era

IDEAS · 6

LEULEULONGDomestic enrichment chokepoint hands Centrus a near-monopoly on US HALEU as demand explodes$174.86-14.97%›SRUSRUUFLONGPhysical uranium is the lowest-risk way to ride a structural supply deficit; all reactors need it$18.06-9.04%›URNURNMLONGUranium miners broadly rerate as the three-decade supply depression reverses into deficit$47.96-24.42%›NATNATKYLONGKazatomprom is the lowest-cost, highest-quality producer carrying the sector, geopolitics aside$62.99-30.94%›

+2 more ideas →

@Convequity

2mo

AI Value Chain Bottlenecks: Where Pricing Power Moves Next

IDEAS · 14

LEULEULONGCentrus owns the only US-licensed HALEU enrichment, a physical chokepoint for the SMR fleet$174.86-15.84%›CRKCRKLONGComstock's Haynesville acreage and a NextEra power hub make it a contrarian speed-to-power gas play$13.54-23.73%›ARARLONGShale gas producers with hyperscaler offtake get demand visibility as gas becomes the AI power bridge$1.72-19.67%›GEVGEVLONGGas turbine duopoly GE Vernova and Siemens Energy hold pricing power with 3-4 year backlogs$973.59-6.95%›

+10 more ideas →

@Convequity

5mo

Agentic Displacement: A Quantitative Extension to Citrini’s Intelligence Crisis

IDEAS · 2

SP5SP500LONGAI displacement crushes labor share and revenue growth but lifts margins, so profits stay structurally elevated$7,360.53+8.77%›RSPRSPDSHORTAI strips wage income from the mass consumer, so broad discretionary spending erodes even as corporate profits stay high.$56.70+2.42%›