“equity markets in particular, which we told you were a buy on every sell-off … a credit crisis is the only thing that can take us out.”
Equities are a buy on every selloff; war and Hormuz could not crack the bull, only credit can
“if you look at what's causing the sell-off in Bitcoin, the active float in Bitcoin has become Michael Saylor. Michael Saylor has a credit problem, right?”
Bitcoin's active float is now Saylor's credit problem, which is why it underperforms
“If you buy SpaceX here, you can go deep and say, 'Well, the revenues are $18 billion and compared to Amazon, it's so low...' And it's like…”
SpaceX is a low-float meme stock that runs on index buying and retail FOMO until unlocks hit
“I think that Robinhood is going to outperform Bitcoin over the next 6 months. … why would I bet on Bitcoin when I can bet on something that if Bitcoin goes…”
Robinhood outperforms Bitcoin over next 6 months as the everything-app financial super app
“the level is going to end when the unlocks start happening … if you're long this stuff and you're not mapping the unlocks, you're going to get torpedoed.”
SpaceX shorts get torpedoed once unlocks begin; insiders will dump and price falls a lot
“we could see a rocket in the markets... we're going to get the craziest sugar rush that you've ever seen over the summer…”
Sticky inflation forces the Fed higher-for-longer; the easing leg under record-high valuations gives way to an unwind.
“Oil just nuked from, you know, north of $100 to the $80s, maybe the high $70s … Oil's the pivot point for that.”
Oil crashing from $100 to high $70s is sharply bearish for inflation, keeps Fed in cut mode
“Bitcoin has really just become the sailor asset. And I think that's just, that's just not where I want to put my money. Right now we are in apathy mode.”
Bitcoin underperforms; flashing bullish on MVRVZ but apathy not yet capitulation, Avi waits
“the current deal is unsustainable … there will be another war. Mark my words, this is just a pause”
Iran ceasefire is a fragile pause, not peace; when conflict resumes, Hormuz supply shock reprices crude higher.
“if you're heavily allocated to the America First defense contractor thesis, maybe you need to get out a little bit … we might just see less conflict in the…”
America-first / rare earth thesis weakening as Trump eases off geopolitical fights into midterms
“because oil just collapsed on the back of the Iran stuff … I think it's just rates lower for the foreseeable future. Rate cuts are not dead.”
Rate cuts are not dead; oil collapse gives Warsh room to keep rates heading lower